Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies - Revision history

Karlijn Schipper: /* Illustration of approach */

2020-01-20T09:32:29Z

Illustration of approach

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:32, 20 January 2020
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	An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>		An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>


	==References==		==References==

Karlijn Schipper: /* Shapes, sizes and applications */

2020-01-20T09:32:19Z

Shapes, sizes and applications

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:32, 20 January 2020
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	The city of Rotterdam is part of the C40 network which tries to help cities to create and implement pathways and strategies for reaching goals of the Paris agreement. The network especially focuses on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to the impacts of climate change and delivering wider social, environmental and economic benefits. <ref>https://resourcecentre.c40.org/</ref>		The city of Rotterdam is part of the C40 network which tries to help cities to create and implement pathways and strategies for reaching goals of the Paris agreement. The network especially focuses on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to the impacts of climate change and delivering wider social, environmental and economic benefits. <ref>https://resourcecentre.c40.org/</ref>

	A further mentioned initiative was the Transition Town network which is a bottom-up civilian movement that aims for low-carbon societies <ref>https://transitionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-Essential-Guide-to-Doing-Transition-English-V1.2.pdf?pdf=essential-guide-to-transition-v-1</ref>. It is discussed in detail here: [[Transition towns]]		A further mentioned initiative was the Transition Town network which is a bottom-up civilian movement that aims for low-carbon societies <ref>https://transitionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-Essential-Guide-to-Doing-Transition-English-V1.2.pdf?pdf=essential-guide-to-transition-v-1</ref>. It is discussed in detail here: [[Transition towns]].


	==Relation to UrbanA themes: Cities, sustainability, and justice==		==Relation to UrbanA themes: Cities, sustainability, and justice==

Karlijn Schipper: /* Transformative potential */

2020-01-20T09:32:03Z

Transformative potential

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 ==Transformative potential==
 Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies have the potential to be highly transformative since their purpose is to evaluate a major global shift away from current carbon-based systems. The degree of transformative potential depends on whether current power relations are problematised and challenged in the pathways/scenarios. The methodologies in this cluster do not clearly acknowledge issues of power with the exception of the Exploring Transition Pathways approach. In it, Path A represents a largely-maintained status quo, where incumbent actors hold onto their power, and technological substitution occurs rather then radical system change. Therefore, the transformative potential of pathways and scenarios, in future applications of its approaches, depends on its attention towards power relations and the willingness of researchers to consider a more radical transition to post-carbonism. Pathways and scenarios risk reproducing existing power relations if they are developed by powerful actors who wish to see their positions maintained (e.g. top-level bureaucrats or industry leaders). However, approaches like Participatory Scenario Development mitigate this risk by welcoming diverse voices expressing concern over current power relations.
 ==Illustration of approach==

Karlijn Schipper: /* Challenges */

2020-01-20T09:31:53Z

Challenges

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:31, 20 January 2020
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	An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>		An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>


	~~==Challenges==~~

	~~Challenges of the approach were discussed at the arena#1 event in Rotterdam.~~
	~~They primarly include power issues in initiating and creating pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies:~~
	~~Questions like "Who initiates", "Who is included" and "Who shows up" are central to the success of especially just scenario building processes.~~

	This becomes especially important if the goal is to use quantitative indicators to measure successes as it is very difiicult to assess individual affects on people through those kind of indicators. The models assumptions have to be thoroughly explained when using quantitative indicators if the scenario building process aims at being transparent.

	~~When creating Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies, it is therefore especially important to be explicit on:~~
	*methodologies (whether to use qualitative or quantitative indicators)
	*actors involved
	*how to get beyond usual suspects
	*reaching out to actors that are usually excluded (e.g housing activists, degrowth movement)

Philipp Spaeth: transferred the feedback from Rotterdam, that Sophia had put in a dedicated secion into the flow of the description.

2019-12-16T10:45:23Z

transferred the feedback from Rotterdam, that Sophia had put in a dedicated secion into the flow of the description.

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:45, 16 December 2019
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	==General introduction to approach==		==General introduction to approach==
	European-funded research has used qualitative and quantitative methods, including participatory research, case studies, quantitative modelling and socio-technological analyses, among others, to support EU policy-making and reach climate goals. Furthermore, these approaches have a strong focus on cities due to their importance in addressing climate change. One approach, Participatory Scenario Development, is directly focused on post-carbon (European) cities, while the other two have a broader focus. While the approaches use participatory methods to engage a variety of stakeholders, the outputs are targeted at municipal and EU officials, and research and academic circles.		European-funded research has used qualitative and quantitative methods, including participatory research, case studies, quantitative modelling and socio-technological analyses, among others, to support EU policy-making and reach climate goals. Furthermore, these approaches have a strong focus on cities due to their importance in addressing climate change. One approach, Participatory Scenario Development, is directly focused on post-carbon (European) cities, while the other two have a broader focus. While the approaches use participatory methods to engage a variety of stakeholders, the outputs are targeted at municipal and EU officials, and research and academic circles.

			Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies are important as they present the opportunity to imagine positive futures. To speak of pathways also means that change is understood as a precondition and not in an utopian way where the imagined future may seem unreachable just by the wording itself. The creation of pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies therefore helps with important fights and the creation of just and sustainable cities. Another important aspect concerns transferability: Certain indicators or methodologies for the creation of the pathways can be translated to other domains/objectives.

	==Shapes, sizes and applications==		==Shapes, sizes and applications==
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	Post-carbon pathways and scenarios is not a new topic, yet it surely cannot be considered a mature one, due to constantly changing modelling technologies and public-perceptions of a post-carbon world. A limitation of these approaches is their predictive nature, which means that they cannot offer a silver bullet for the route to post-carbon societies. Instead they are able to open up potential futures, and encourage policymakers to work towards them in a way that minimises social and economic costs. Regarding transferability, the methodologies in their general form are transferable to non-European contexts, and could be used to study non-European cities.		Post-carbon pathways and scenarios is not a new topic, yet it surely cannot be considered a mature one, due to constantly changing modelling technologies and public-perceptions of a post-carbon world. A limitation of these approaches is their predictive nature, which means that they cannot offer a silver bullet for the route to post-carbon societies. Instead they are able to open up potential futures, and encourage policymakers to work towards them in a way that minimises social and economic costs. Regarding transferability, the methodologies in their general form are transferable to non-European contexts, and could be used to study non-European cities.

			Participants of arena#1 event in Rotterdam mentioned another application:
			The Rotterdam energy transition plan is an example of a city trying to become carbon - neutral in the run-up to the 2050 Paris Agreement deadline.
			Two specific pathways are mentioned:
			*A market-oriented pathway that focuses on all-electric solutions where e.g in the area of mobility half of the transport in the city would happen in an electric vehicle.
			*A collective pathway that mainly focuses on collective solutions which e.g. in the are of mobility would mean a drastical reduction of individual car use and being mobile through bike, by foot or through an increased usage of public transport.
			Both pathways rely on heavily renovating buildings with over 200.000 buildings renovated in both scenarios. In general the areas of transportation, housing and consumption are the main focus of both pathways. <ref>https://www.arup.com/projects/rotterdam-energy-transition-plan-2050</ref>

			The city of Rotterdam is part of the C40 network which tries to help cities to create and implement pathways and strategies for reaching goals of the Paris agreement. The network especially focuses on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to the impacts of climate change and delivering wider social, environmental and economic benefits. <ref>https://resourcecentre.c40.org/</ref>

			A further mentioned initiative was the Transition Town network which is a bottom-up civilian movement that aims for low-carbon societies <ref>https://transitionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-Essential-Guide-to-Doing-Transition-English-V1.2.pdf?pdf=essential-guide-to-transition-v-1</ref>. It is discussed in detail here: [[Transition towns]]


	==Relation to UrbanA themes: Cities, sustainability, and justice==		==Relation to UrbanA themes: Cities, sustainability, and justice==
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	An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>		An illustrative example of Participatory Scenario Development, from POCACITO project is the '''vision workshop in Malmo''', Sweden. Malmo, Sweden was one of the POCACITO case study cities. Part of the Participatory Scenario Development process involved a visioning workshop in which a variety of stakeholders (city officials, public transport company, a construction company, local university, and IT company) were brought together to produce a vision for a 2050 post-carbon Malmo. The visions included topics from good mobility to social equality and inclusion, and opportunities and limitations for reaching them. The workshop also mapped out short, medium, and long-term goals for the city and named relevant actors to champion them. Visioning exercises can serve as an inspirational foundation for more precise post-carbon pathways and scenarios. Unfortunately, certain social groups such as the young and elderly, and immigrants, were missing from the workshop. More workshop results are available in its report. <ref> https://pocacito.eu/sites/default/files/workshop_reports/Malmo_Workshop_Report.pdf </ref>

	~~=Contributions from arena 1 participants=~~
	~~'''Examples of application:'''~~

	~~The Rotterdam energy transition plan is an example of a city trying to become carbon - neutral in the run-up to the 2050 Paris Agreement deadline.~~		==Challenges==
	~~Two specific pathways are mentioned:~~
	*A market-oriented pathway that focuses on all-electric solutions where e.g in the area of mobility half of the transport in the city would happen in an electric vehicle.
	*A collective pathway that mainly focuses on collective solutions which e.g. in the are of mobility would mean a drastical reduction of individual car use and being mobile through bike, by foot or through an increased usage of public transport.
	Both pathways rely on heavily renovating buildings with over 200.000 buildings renovated in both scenarios. In general the areas of transportation, housing and consumption are the main focus of both pathways. <ref>https://www.arup.com/projects/rotterdam-energy-transition-plan-2050</ref>

	~~The city of Rotterdam is part~~ of the ~~C40 network which tries to help cities to create and implement pathways and strategies for reaching goals of~~ the Paris agreement. The network especially focuses on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also adapting to the impacts of climate change and delivering wider social, environmental and economic benefits. <ref>https://resourcecentre.c40.org/</ref>		Challenges of the approach were discussed at the arena#1 event in Rotterdam.
			They primarly include power issues in initiating and creating pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies:
	A further mentioned initiative was the Transition Town network which is a bottom-up civilian movement that aims for low-carbon societies <ref>https://transitionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-Essential-Guide-to-Doing-Transition-English-V1.2.pdf?pdf=essential-guide-to-transition-v-1~~</ref>. It is discussed~~ in ~~detail here: [[Transition towns]]~~

	~~'''Important elements and opportunities:'''~~

	Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies are important as they present the opportunity to imagine positive futures. To speak of pathways also means that change is understood as a precondition and not in an utopian way where the imagined future may seem unreachable just by the wording itself. The creation of pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies therefore helps with important fights and the creation of just and sustainable cities. Another important aspect concerns transferability: Certain indicators or methodologies for the creation of the pathways can be translated to other domains/objectives.

	~~'''Concerning elements and challenges''':~~

	~~Mentioned challenges~~ primarly include power issues in initiating and creating pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies:
	Questions like "Who initiates", "Who is included" and "Who shows up" are central to the success of especially just scenario building processes.		Questions like "Who initiates", "Who is included" and "Who shows up" are central to the success of especially just scenario building processes.

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	*how to get beyond usual suspects		*how to get beyond usual suspects
	*reaching out to actors that are usually excluded (e.g housing activists, degrowth movement)		*reaching out to actors that are usually excluded (e.g housing activists, degrowth movement)


	==References==		==References==

Jakob Kramer: /* Contributions from arena 1 participants */

2019-12-03T15:40:54Z